The Hidden Blueprint: Using Volume Profile and Retail Sales Data to Predict Market Moves Before They Happen

Why Your Charts Are Lying to You (And What Smart Money Knows That You Don’t)
Let’s be honest—staring at your candlestick chart, hoping it reveals some divine trading prophecy, feels a bit like refreshing your ex’s Instagram hoping they got uglier. Spoiler: neither works.
Most traders cling to price action like it’s the last lifeboat on the Titanic. But here’s the plot twist: price is only half the story. What you’re missing is what the institutional players are quietly using behind the scenes—Volume Profile analysis paired with Retail Sales data.
This combination is like seeing the cheat codes to the market while everyone else is still reading the manual.
But Here’s Where the Real Magic Happens…
Pairing Volume Profile with Retail Sales data can uncover stealthy market shifts before they appear on standard price charts. You don’t need a Ph.D. in economics (or a crystal ball); you just need to understand what the pros know and how to read the footprints they leave.
Let’s peel back the curtain.
Volume Profile: The Market’s Lie Detector Test
Ever bought a stock because it was hyped, only to watch it tank faster than your New Year’s resolutions? Yeah, that’s called trading blind.
Volume Profile is the X-ray vision you need.
Instead of guessing, it shows you exactly where the big money is actually trading. It reveals the price levels where most of the trading volume happened—showing you the real battleground between buyers and sellers.
Here’s what Volume Profile tells you that price action alone never will:
- High-Volume Nodes (HVN): These are price levels where the market spent a lot of time. Translation? Heavy institutional interest. Think of this as the market’s favorite “happy hour spot.”
- Low-Volume Nodes (LVN): Price levels where the market passed through quickly. These are like sketchy alleyways—markets avoid them unless forced.
- Point of Control (POC): The price level with the highest volume. This is the market’s “comfort zone.” Knowing this lets you predict where price might return after a wild move.
Insider Trick: When price breaks into a low-volume area, it tends to move fast—like a squirrel on espresso. That’s your breakout setup.
Retail Sales Data: The Hidden Pulse of Market Momentum
Okay, I get it. Retail Sales sounds about as exciting as watching paint dry. But here’s the scoop—it’s the canary in the coal mine for currency strength.
Retail sales data tells you how much consumers are spending. Why does that matter? Because consumer spending drives economies. Strong sales? The economy’s pumping iron. Weak sales? It’s binging Netflix and ice cream.
Advanced Insight:
- Surging U.S. Retail Sales often precedes a bullish USD.
- Weak Retail Sales in the Eurozone? Expect EUR/USD pressure.
Hidden Pattern: Combine unexpected Retail Sales data with Volume Profile shifts. For instance:
- If U.S. Retail Sales surprise to the upside and price is near a low-volume node on EUR/USD, expect a rapid drop as price slices through that zone.
The Ninja Combo: Volume Profile + Retail Sales = Market GPS
Here’s a Step-by-Step Blueprint:
- Check Upcoming Retail Sales Data: Use trusted sources like Forex Factory or StarseedFX News.
- Identify Volume Profile Zones: Use TradingView’s Volume Profile indicator (or better yet, StarseedFX’s Smart Trading Tool) to spot high and low-volume areas.
- Wait for the News Shock: If Retail Sales data deviates significantly from expectations, price often explodes into low-volume zones.
- Enter with Precision: Enter as price pierces a low-volume area, riding the momentum. Target the next high-volume node for your exit.
- Stop Loss Like a Pro: Place your stop loss just beyond the nearest high-volume node. Institutions defend these zones, acting like invisible shields.
Real-World Example:
- In July 2023, U.S. Retail Sales surged 0.7% (vs. 0.4% forecast), causing USD/JPY to break into a low-volume zone. Price shot up 130 pips in hours. Traders who spotted this pocket with Volume Profile banked hard.
Why Most Traders Miss This (And How You Can Dominate)
Most traders chase price like it’s a TikTok trend. Institutions? They watch volume and economic data like hawks.
Contrarian Insight:
- Price is the bait; volume is the truth.
- News is the trigger; Volume Profile is your map.
Expert Validation:
- According to Adam Grimes, author of The Art & Science of Technical Analysis, “Volume at price reveals the market’s real sentiment beneath surface-level movements.”
- Kathy Lien, Managing Director of BK Asset Management, emphasizes, “Retail Sales often set the tone for currency momentum more than traders realize.”
Elite Tactics Recap:
- Volume Profile = X-ray vision for institutional footprints.
- Retail Sales = Real-time economic health check.
- Low-Volume Nodes = Breakout highways.
- High-Volume Nodes = Institutional defense zones.
- Combine Data + Volume = Precision sniper entries.
Ready to stop guessing and start trading like a pro? Join the StarseedFX Community for real-time alerts, insider tips, and volume-based analysis that gives you an unfair advantage.
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Image Credits: Cover image at the top is AI-generated
PLEASE NOTE: This is not trading advice. It is educational content. Markets are influenced by numerous factors, and their reactions can vary each time.

Anne Durrell & Mo
About the Author
Anne Durrell (aka Anne Abouzeid), a former teacher, has a unique talent for transforming complex Forex concepts into something easy, accessible, and even fun. With a blend of humor and in-depth market insight, Anne makes learning about Forex both enlightening and entertaining. She began her trading journey alongside her husband, Mohamed Abouzeid, and they have now been trading full-time for over 12 years.
Anne loves writing and sharing her expertise. For those new to trading, she provides a variety of free forex courses on StarseedFX. If you enjoy the content and want to support her work, consider joining The StarseedFX Community, where you will get daily market insights and trading alerts.
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