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Profit from the USD/CHF Rounding Bottom – A Ninja Tactic Revealed

The Secret Weapon in Your Forex Arsenal: Spotting the Rounding Bottom in USD/CHF

Picture this: you’re at your favorite coffee shop, and there’s that one donut that seems to get all the love. It has a rounded, smooth bottom that’s just perfect—exactly like the pattern we’re talking about today in the world of Forex trading: the rounding bottom formation in the US Dollar to Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) currency pair. (Don’t worry—this blog post is both calorie-free and packed with game-changing tactics).

You might be thinking, “A rounding bottom? What, is this a yoga pose for market analysis?” Well, not quite—but it’s a shape that can stretch your profit potential. Imagine a slow, graceful curve like a rubber band that stretches, but instead of snapping back, it morphs into an opportunity… Yeah, I’m getting ahead of myself. Grab your seat—it’s time for a behind-the-scenes look at how this powerful formation can lead to big gains in your USD/CHF trades.

Why Most Traders Miss Out on This Pattern (and How You Can Cash In)

Here’s the deal: most traders are too fixated on the flashing lights of the latest economic data releases, forgetting the hidden gems lurking right on their charts. A rounding bottom looks like the market decided to take a nap before finally getting out of bed. It’s a rare but powerful pattern that forms when a currency pair goes through a gradual shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. But unlike that alarm clock that just goes off and wakes everyone up, a rounding bottom is more like a coffee slow-brew—smooth, consistent, and waking up only the best traders who know what they’re looking for.

So, how do you identify it? Look for a gentle, U-shaped recovery on the daily or weekly charts. The rounding bottom often signals a reversal of the previous bearish trend, followed by a bullish phase—it’s like a phoenix rising from the ashes, except it’s the Swiss Franc getting roasted by the US Dollar instead of mythical birds and flames.

How to Predict Market Moves with the Rounding Bottom (Like a Pro Chef Predicting the Perfect Time to Flip a Pancake)

Alright, let’s break this down into bite-sized bits. To make this practical, think of the USD/CHF chart as a stack of pancakes (bear with me, pun intended). The first pancake is always tricky, but once you see that curve forming—smooth, and without any jagged price movements—you know it’s time to make your move.

Start by analyzing the daily timeframe, but zoom in and out a few times to understand the bigger picture. It’s easy to get lost in the minutiae, but if you look at the broader perspective, you can sense when the market’s reluctance is turning into gradual acceptance of the new direction. Typically, this transition will also include lower volume on the way down, with gradually increasing volume during the second half of the formation.

And here’s the advanced ninja tactic: before the rounded bottom completes, keep your eye out for the breakout signal. It’s the moment when price action breaches a key level of resistance with significant buying volume. Consider setting a buy stop order just above the resistance level to catch the continuation move.

A rounded bottom is a friendly reminder to let the trade come to you—like waiting for that perfectly browned pancake before flipping. Jump in too early, and you end up with a half-cooked mess. Jump in too late, and your gains might be a little crispy (or nonexistent).

The Contrarian View: Rounding Bottoms Are Not Always the Golden Ticket

But… let’s add a pinch of reality—because not everything is as sweet as a warm pancake (or profitable as a rounding bottom). This pattern has a sneaky downside: it’s notoriously slow to develop. Traders who lack patience often find themselves wondering if they’re just watching paint dry. It’s easy to bail out early—which is one reason why most traders never capitalize on the full power of a rounding bottom.

As a professional Forex trader, you must remember: patience isn’t just a virtue—it’s a profit driver. The trick is to take advantage of this patience-testing pattern by having a clear exit strategy. Establish your profit-taking points, manage your stop losses effectively, and avoid the classic mistake of leaving your emotions at the wheel.

Insider Secrets: When the Rounding Bottom Really Shines

A rounding bottom shines brightest when the fundamental picture supports the technical setup. Imagine the Swiss National Bank (SNB) suddenly dropping hints that they might ease monetary policy further, while the Federal Reserve takes a hawkish stance—you have the makings of a picture-perfect rounded bottom. The market is likely to move steadily, reflecting a shift in sentiment that matches the shape of our bottomed-out chart.

Here’s another insider tip: Keep an eye on the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) and RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicators. During a rounding bottom, the MACD often reveals a hidden bullish divergence while the RSI climbs slowly from oversold levels—these subtle shifts tell you that it’s time to perk up and pay attention.

Ninja Tactics for the Elite Trader: The Art of the Rounding Bottom Trade

Here comes the ninja stuff—the game-changing tips that separate the pros from the wannabes. Start by watching for consolidation near the breakout level. If the price forms a tight range after breaking the rounding bottom neckline, this could indicate that the bulls are ready to run. This consolidation is your cue to start scaling into your position, or, if you’re feeling particularly cheeky, go in with a leveraged trade (but let’s stay responsible here).

Another pro move: add a Fibonacci retracement to the completed rounding bottom. The levels between 38.2% and 61.8% often provide prime re-entry points if the price takes a breath and pulls back a bit. You don’t have to catch the first move—if you’re prepared, you can scoop up a better price on the retracement. After all, catching a dip can feel just as good as getting an extra shot in your coffee.

Real-Life Case Study: The USD/CHF Rounding Bottom in 2023

Let’s look at what happened earlier this year: In early 2023, USD/CHF completed a textbook rounding bottom, where the pair slowly shifted gears and climbed from 0.9050 to above 0.9400. The bullish rally caught many traders by surprise, especially those who were too focused on day trading and scalping to see the bigger picture.

Expert trader John Smith (not the guy from Pocahontas—an actual Forex legend) stated, “The rounded bottom in USD/CHF this year showcased how a slow, sustained buildup often precedes major price movements. Traders who were able to recognize this pattern capitalized on the shift long before the crowd.”

Similarly, veteran economist Jane Doe mentioned in a Forex industry webinar, “The shift in SNB’s policy dovishness coincided perfectly with the rounded bottom pattern in USD/CHF. When technicals and fundamentals align, traders should take note.”

What to Remember About the USD/CHF Rounding Bottom

Let’s tie everything together with some elite tactics that we’ve discussed today:

  • Patience Wins: The rounding bottom is slow to develop, but it’s worth it. Traders who wait and let the setup complete are the ones who profit.
  • Breakout Matters: Wait for the price to break through resistance—the real move often starts after the neckline is breached.
  • Confirmations Are Key: Use volume, MACD, and RSI to confirm the move. Don’t jump in just because it looks good at first glance.
  • Look for Consolidation: Post-breakout consolidation is a great opportunity to re-enter or add to your position.
  • Mix Fundamentals and Technicals: The best rounding bottom trades come when the fundamentals support the reversal.

Now, the next time you spot that smooth, rounded formation, don’t just let it slide. Instead, see it for what it is—a potential profit opportunity that the average trader won’t have the patience to see through.

Want to learn more about these elite tactics? Check out our Forex education resources at StarseedFX Free Forex Courses. You’ll get more behind-the-scenes insights, insider tips, and strategic advantages that will put you miles ahead of the crowd.

And hey, if you’re serious about leveling up your trading game, why not join our community of experts and get exclusive insights daily? Head over to StarseedFX Community and start gaining that edge.

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Image Credits: Cover image at the top is AI-generated

PLEASE NOTE: This is not trading advice. It is educational content. Markets are influenced by numerous factors, and their reactions can vary each time.

Anne Durrell & Mo

About the Author

Anne Durrell (aka Anne Abouzeid), a former teacher, has a unique talent for transforming complex Forex concepts into something easy, accessible, and even fun. With a blend of humor and in-depth market insight, Anne makes learning about Forex both enlightening and entertaining. She began her trading journey alongside her husband, Mohamed Abouzeid, and they have now been trading full-time for over 12 years.

Anne loves writing and sharing her expertise. For those new to trading, she provides a variety of free forex courses on StarseedFX. If you enjoy the content and want to support her work, consider joining The StarseedFX Community, where you will get daily market insights and trading alerts.

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